Lesson #1. Primary challenges
are an effective tactic to enforce adherence to the progressive values of the
Democratic Party.
Progressive
organizations and unions are surely disappointed that they were unsuccessful at
upending Senator Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas last night. But they certainly did
not "come up empty" as the Washington Post wrote
this morning.
No incumbent Democratic member of Congress
wants to be subjected to a multi-million dollar, grueling, down-to-the-wire
primary challenge by the mainstream base of the its own party. By challenging
Lincoln, progressive organizations and labor sent a loud message to other
members of Congress that support for insurance companies, corporate polluters,
and anti-union conglomerates does not come without a price.
Big campaign contributions from corporate
PACs don't mean so much if you have to spend them in tough primary campaigns.
Core elements of the Republican Party have used the primary threat effectively
for years to maintain discipline in their ranks. The message would have been
even louder had Lincoln lost, but it was heard around the Democratic Party none
the less.
And the effect of Halter's candidacy on
Lincoln's behavior was immediate. It is certainly one reason why Lincoln has
become such a champion of tough regulations to crack down on risky behavior by
big Wall Street banks that threaten another financial meltdown. Her populist
stance on Wall Street regulation is at least partially responsible for her
margin of victory.
Ironically, those big Wall Street banks were
hoping that if Lincoln lost the primary she would be perfectly willing to
compromise her tough provisions away as the Wall Street reform bill is
conferenced by the House and Senate. Now Lincoln has every incentive to hang
tough on Wall Street reform since she has to struggle to mobilize the Party's
disappointed base vote in the fall elections.
These base voters won't vote for her opponent
John Boozman, but they could very well sit the election out. The last thing she
can afford is to appear that here commitment to tough Wall Street reform was
nothing but an attempt to win the Democratic primary. In addition, of course,
the notion of holding Wall Street accountable is popular across the Arkansas
electorate.
Lesson
#2. The Tea Party is becoming an extremist cancer in the Republican Party.
The
biggest winner last night was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Conventional
Wisdom's assumption that he faced certain political demise turnout out to be
all wrong.
Instead of facing a more mainstream Republican
in November, his opponent will be Tea Party affiliated Sharron Angle who wants
to privatize Social Security, abolish Medicare and replace it with vouchers,
restore the prohibition of alcohol (in Nevada no less), eliminate the
Departments of Education and Energy, and store the nation's nuclear waste at
Yucca Mountain, not too many miles from Las Vegas.
It is true that her "mainstream"
Republican opponent, Sue Lowden, looked pretty extreme herself when she
proposed bartering chickens for health care. But Angle is way out there -- a
million miles from the political mainstream in Nevada.
The Tea Party, of course, was originally
organized and funded by Dick Armey and his corporate clients in a bid to defeat
the Obama agenda in general and his health care reform bill in particular. It
has morphed into a Frankenstein monster that is now loose in the Republican
streets and threatens serious damage to the party in the fall. While the Tea
Party has helped to energize the Republican base, it is wreaking havoc in primaries
and will fuel the Democratic narrative that Republican candidates are
extremists and completely out of touch with the aspirations of everyday middle
class families -- especially the key swing voting block of seniors.
Many seniors were frightened by the health
care bill because they erroneously thought it would cut Medicare. Now they are
coming to find that Republicans want to abolish Medicare altogether and replace
it with vouchers not worth the paper they're printed on -- not to mention
resuscitate George W. Bush's scheme for privatizing Social Security.
One of the problems with candidates like
Angle is that -- though many main stream Republicans share her positions --
they aren't stupid enough to say so. Angle, and other Tea Party nominees like
Rand Paul, just blurt their positions right out for all the world to see.
And that's not the only problem the Tea Party
is causing for the Republican establishment. After losing last night's primary
to oppose Democrat Tom Periello of Virginia, one of the Tea Party losers vowed
to run as an independent -- effectively splitting the anti-Periello vote.
That's great for Periello, who also happens to be one of the most principled
and courageous Democrats in of Congress.
Lesson
#3. It is increasingly clear the Arizona Immigration Law will damage Republican
chances this fall.
The effects of Arizona's draconian
"papers please" anti-immigration law are spreading like the oil from
the BP's Deepwater Horizon.
Former HP Executive Carly Fiorina presents
her self as stylish and 21st Century candidate, but she has taken a firm
position supporting Arizona's SB 1070. Fiorina won the primary Tuesday to
challenge Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. After some equivocation, former
ebay CEO Meg Whitman also firmly backed the "principles" of SB 1070.
She was nominated after spending $81 million to challenge former Governor Jerry
Brown who wants to return to the Executive Mansion in Sacramento.
Their positions on the Arizona law may have
helped them win the nomination, but they may be the kiss of death in the
general election. Over five million of California's twenty four million
citizens of voting age (21.5%) are Hispanic. They will likely be a decisive
block of voters in the fall elections -- and they consider the Arizona law as a
direct personal assault.
Not only will their position on the Arizona
law become an albatross among persuadable Hispanic voters, it may likely spur
large scale Latino turnout. Three million of the five million citizens of
voting age are "surge" voters that usually vote only in general
elections. But the Arizona law -- and large scale voter mobilization campaigns
in the Latino community -- will likely change that.
Support for the Arizona law could spell
trouble for other Republicans as well -- not only in California, but in many
other swing Senate states like Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Nevada,
Pennsylvania and even Arizona itself.